Analysis of 25,264 agentic PRs across 2,361 popular GitHub repositories shows that the median repository generated only 1-2 agentic PRs over three months, indicating that intensive adoption is concentrated in a few projects. Small projects (1-5 contributors) had higher participation rates and average agentic PR activity than medium and large projects. A few projects exceeded the industry-reported estimate of 36 PRs per participant over the three-month observation period.
Analysis of 25,264 agentic PRs across 2,361 popular GitHub repositories shows that adoption of agentic coding tools remains limited at the project level, with the median repository generating only 1-2 agentic PRs over three months. Small projects exhibited higher participation rates and average agentic PR activity. A few projects exceeded the industry-reported benchmark of 36 PRs per participant, but most did not.
Agentic coding tools can generate and submit PRs, but project-level adoption patterns suggest these tools are more effective in small projects, likely due to lower coordination overhead.
Adoption of agentic coding tools on GitHub is still in early stages, with most projects engaging in experimental use. Small projects may be early adopters, while large projects face integration challenges.
Agentic coding tool vendors should optimize products for small projects to drive adoption and develop collaboration features for large projects to overcome coordination barriers.
If agentic coding tools continue to demonstrate value in small projects, they may gradually penetrate medium and large projects. Verifiable next signal: a 50% increase in agentic PR activity in medium-sized projects (6-20 contributors) within six months.