How We Assess

See how we verify facts, separate analysis from forecasts, and update conclusions when new evidence appears.

Verify facts

Prefer primary material. A material claim needs one Tier 1 source or two independent Tier 2 sources.

Facts, inferences, opinions, forecasts, and opportunity hypotheses are labeled separately.

A public assessment changes only when new evidence alters the phase, impact, or next watchpoint.

VERIFIABLE

Every public event links to its source material and keeps later updates in the same thread.

USE JUDGMENT

Role assessments, opportunity hypotheses, cost comparisons, and future signals are reference material. Apply them to your own context.